As the race for the November midterm election gears up, both Democrats and Republicans have a fight on their hands to determine who controls the house majority. Some election forecasters are of the opinion that the Democrats have an edge with the republics not giving anything up yet in their control of the chamber. There are still a lot of events to watch out for before the November 6 showdown.
The task before the Democratic Party now is to win at least 23 of the GOP-held seats to gain control of the house. With the way things stand now and looking at history, we are sure that the Republican Party will lose seats come November. How much will they lose? We cannot say. While we are on this permutation, there is still a significant question of whether the Democrats have what it takes to gain or lose control of the house.
According to a recent report from a data forecast website FiveThirtyEightaverage, the Democrats have an eight percentage point edge on national generic voters. This report takes into account polling, fundraising, voting history and analyst ratings at the house district level. Using these metrics, it gives the Democratic a 68.5 percent chance over the Republicans and projects the possibility of them gaining 31 seats.
Some of the things that positioned the Democratic Party as a front-runner in the upcoming election are President Donald Trump’s mediocre approval rating; the way electorates view the congressional GOP policies as well as historical trends of president parties as far as midterm elections are concerned.
A contrary report from Kondik and Leah Askarinam, a reporter, and an analyst for Inside Elections posits that the House majority is not yet locked and there is still a lot to fight for, with more than two months to go. What gave them this assurance is an improved approval rating of the president, generic Republican electorates and surprise twists that can still happen in both national and district level.
Apart from the fight to gain control of the house, the race for who controls the majority of the Senate is still on, with the Democrats having little chance. The Democratic have a considerable task of defending 26 seats together with their independent caucus. What makes it harder is the fact that 10 of the seats are where President Trump won in 2016. This even makes the race for the house more interesting in this demography.
One significant stake in this election is the president and his agenda. A democratic controlled house will push for its own goals such as tax cut reversals for corporations, improved affordable care act while also blocking any priorities of President Trump. Ultimately, and one of the crucial events that can happen is that the Democratic Party can finally have the power to investigate or push for impeachment of the president.
As the focus turns on the November 6 midterm election, we hope that the American people are the eventual gainers in the long run.